There has been a slight increase in the likelihood of a "city-killer" asteroid impacting Earth on December 22, 2032.
A 200-foot-wide, near Earth asteroid, 2024 YR4, has an 1.2 percent possibility of colliding with our planet, with a likelihood of 1 in 83.
The agency's "Sentry" Earth Impact Monitoring system currently puts the probability of a direct hit at one in seventy-seven, equivalent to a 1.3 percent chance.
Scientists have also calculated a predicted impact area that spans from South America to across the Atlantic Ocean and into sub-Saharan Africa.
This asteroid poses a significant threat of destruction, particularly if it were to impact a highly congested urban area. Its size is comparable to the 1908 asteroid impact, which released energy equivalent to approximately 50 million tons of TNT.
A spokesperson of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) told that there is no need for concern.
Exceeding the target rate of 1.2 percent 'by just 0.1 percent is irrelevant,' he stated.
"The data may temporarily fluctuate between these two final options until more evidence is gathered, which is a natural phenomenon in scientific data collection," he explained.
In any event, the likelihood of this asteroid colliding with our planet remains extremely low.
Incoming at an approximate separation of about 112 kilometers.
Scientists think 2024 YR4 is roughly the same size as the Tunguska asteroid, which had the most powerful impact ever recorded.
It detonated in mid-air over Siberia, resulting in what is termed an 'air burst,' causing an estimated 80 million trees to be flattened over an area of approximately 2,142 square kilometers of forest.
Astronomers predict that if the asteroid 2024 YR4 enters Earth's atmosphere, it may cause a comparable event.
The spacecraft could potentially survive the re-entry and land violently, producing a large crater and devastating cities in the impacted area.
Our automated Sentry risk list that ranks known Near Earth Objects on how likely they are to interact with our planet.
Near-Earth Objects are asteroids and comets that orbit the sun and approach close to Earth.
The newly discovered asteroid currently poses the highest threat to the planet, with a ranking of three out of 10 on the Torino risk scale, a measure used to rate the potential impact of near-Earth objects on the Earth.
It's a scale from zero to ten, with higher numbers representing a higher risk level of impact.
Generally, most Near-Earth Objects do not exceed a severity rating of two on the threat scale.
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Experts will have to definitively determine the asteroid's composition and actual dimensions before they can calculate its impact potential, something that can only occur when it draws closer to our planet, Rankin explained to Space.com.
The size and composition of an asteroid are major factors in assessing potential damage, as is its point of impact.
"It's challenging to limit the size and composition due to the current orbital circumstances, as it's moving away from us," he added.
He noted that the most effective way to determine an asteroid's size is by using radar observations.
This method bounces radio waves or microwaves off an asteroid's surface and then analyzes the reflections to calculate its size.
Astronomers may have a unique opportunity to conduct radar observations of the asteroid in 2028 when it comes close to Earth, passing at a distance of approximately five million miles, according to Rankin.
Currently, astronomers have to rely on the asteroid's absolute luminosity, or brightness, in order to estimate its size indirectly.
This calculation gives them a rough diameter of 196 feet, but this estimate is based on the assumption that the asteroid's surface has a certain level of reflectivity that may not be accurate.
"IF THE ASTEROID HAS A DARKER SURFACE, THAT CALCULATION IS TOO LOW; IF IT HAS A LIGHTER REFLECTIVE SURFACE, THAT CALCULATION IS TOO HIGH," RANKIN SAID.
The reflectivity of an asteroid is determined by its composition, and this composition also has a significant influence on the behavior of space rocks when they enter Earth's atmosphere.
"If asteroid 2024 YR4 is composed of rocky material, it could potentially produce a considerable air explosion and ground-reaching fireball," Rankin mentioned.
If made of iron, it will push through the atmosphere with little difficulty and create a crater. This is why understanding not only the orbit but also the composition and size is so crucial.
Astronomers will keep a close eye on 2024 YR4 as it approaches, carefully examining the eventual risks that may arise.
"There is no cause for concern at this time," said Rankin.
A low-probability impact is still a possibility, and the most probable outcome will be a close approach of a rock that will miss us.
As the potential threat of 2024 YR4 has been recognized, the focus shifts to acquiring as much knowledge as possible about it in advance of 2032.
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