NASA shares new video of asteroid and updates chance it will hit Earth

• A devastating asteroid on a collision course with a city would unleash catastrophic destruction.

The detection system has minimized the likelihood of a "city-killer" asteroid impacting Earth.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, a newly discovered asteroid, has a 1 in 67 (1.5 percent) chance of colliding with our planet on December 22, 2032.

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) NASA has released new observations from a ground-based telescope of the rock, which is estimated to be approximately 130 to 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) in diameter.

NASA stated in a tweet: 'New observations of asteroid 2024 YR4 led to an update of its probability of impacting Earth in 2032.

The current likelihood is 1.5%. Our comprehension of the asteroid's trajectory becomes more accurate with each observation.

However, by April 2025, the object will be so distant that it will have become too faint to be detectable by Earth-based telescopes.

Further updates will not be possible until 2028, when the 2024 YR4 approaches Earth and becomes bright enough to be detected again.

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On Tuesday, it updated the likelihood of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting in 2032 to 3.1 percent, the highest probability NASA has ever assigned to an object of this size or larger.

However, new data collected overnight has lowered the likelihood of this occurrence to a 1-in-67 (1.5 percent) chance.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 orbits the sun on an elliptical path - meaning it has an elongated shape that is not perfectly circular.

Currently, it is about 30 million miles away from Earth, which is relatively close, allowing NASA telescopes to detect it in the night sky.

It is moving away from us because it is planned to start an orbit around the sun – but by December 2032, it is expected to come perilously close to, or even collide with, our planet.

When it does eventually hit Earth, the asteroid will be moving at an incredible speed of approximately 85 million miles per hour, or 38,000 kilometers per second.

Asteroids accelerate as they draw nearer to the sun due to the enhanced gravitational pull from the sun as they approach it.

What information is available about the 2024 YR4 (Year 4)?

: December 27, 2024

40 to 90 metres (130 to 300 feet)

Approximately 46,800 kilometers per hour.

December 22, 2032

One in sixty-seven (one and a half per cent)

A "city killer" asteroid of the size of the Tunguska asteroid, which exploded with a force equivalent to 15-30 megatons of TNT.

If this asteroid were to collide with Earth, it would unleash a blast equivalent to detonating 7.7 megatons of TNT and create a crater approximately 3,000 feet wide in the ground.

The shockwave emanating from the impact would devastate an area the size of a major city – hence, it has been classified as a "city-killer".

Retired Canadian astronaut Chris Hadfield has likened asteroid 2024 YR4 to 'a bullet heading straight for Earth from the vastness of space'.

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The region stretches from northern South America across the Pacific to sub-Saharan Africa and into Asia.

Concerningly, this path spans several densely populated areas, including Chennai, India and Hainan Island, China.

In May, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the most powerful telescope ever constructed, is slated to observe this asteroid.

The data it collects will greatly assist astronomers in pinpointing the potential location where it could impact Earth in 2032.

Instead of crashing into Earth's surface, 2024 YR4 may enter the Earth's atmosphere and explode in mid-air, in a phenomenon known as an 'airburst', similar to the Tunguska asteroid event of 1908.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 is believed to be of a similar size to the Tunguska asteroid, which is estimated to be around 130 feet in diameter, according to NASA.

The agency states: 'The exact dimensions of 2024 YR4 are still unclear, but an airburst is a probable scenario for its size range.'

If we assume the asteroid is definitely on a collision course with Earth, humanity's most effective option may be to deliberately strike it with a spacecraft to alter its trajectory.

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'It doesn't mean we can use kinetic impactors like this to deflect any asteroid whenever we want,' Dr. Andrews said.

It is almost certain that the asteroid will safely pass by Earth on December 22, 2032, without causing any harm to our planet.

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The likelihood of the asteroid colliding with Earth will be recalculated numerous times as it continues on its path.

The ever-changing probabilities are due to the rock's movement at millions of miles per hour through space, which becomes increasingly challenging to determine when the full moon is out and there's more moonlight.

We can anticipate the probability figures to fluctuate slightly,

This is merely how scientific data measurements unfold.

5. **Mass Drivers**: A mass driver is a device

DART is one of several concepts that have been proposed to counter the threat of an asteroid over the years.

Multiple bumps

Scientists in California have been launching projectiles at meteorites to simulate the most effective methods for altering the trajectory of an asteroid to prevent it from colliding with Earth.

Based on the current findings, an asteroid such as Bennu that is rich in carbon may require several minor collisions to alter its trajectory.

These findings suggest that multiple successive collisions may be necessary to deflect rather than disintegrate asteroids, especially those composed of carbon, researchers claim.

Nuke

Another concept, referred to as 'nuke', entails detonating a nuclear explosive device near the asteroid.

However, this could create smaller but still potentially hazardous fragments of rock that could spin off in all directions, potentially towards our planet.

Ion Beam Deflection

Using Ion Beam Deflection, the plumes from a space probe's thrusters would be directed towards the asteroid, gently applying pressure over a broad area.

A thruster firing in the opposite direction would be required to maintain the spacecraft at a constant distance from the asteroid.

Gravity tractor

And yet another concept, gravity tractor, would deflect the asteroid by utilizing only its gravitational field to convey a necessary impulse, without physically touching it.

Professor Colin Snodgrass, an astronomer at the University of Edinburgh said: "There have been a few concepts proposed, including a 'gravity tractor' to slowly draw an asteroid away instead of using a kinetic impactor to push it."

The kinetic impactor is undoubtedly the simplest technology to employ on the time frame that is most likely to be relevant for an asteroid of this size, namely, a time frame of years to decades.

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