President Trump's new team for the Balkans features some well-known figures with strong connections to Serbia: former special envoy Richard Grenell, the President's son-in-law Jared Kushner, and former governor Rod Blagojevich.
Hit the nail on the head with its Inauguration Day headline: "The Chief Negotiator Returns."
Trump's foreign policy seems to indicate that his preferred approach to making deals will continue to be a central aspect of his second administration.
or — a Trump classic — a "Trump Tower" in the Serbian capital, Belgrade.
.
Grenell was a special presidential envoy for Serbia and Kosovo peace negotiations during the first Trump administration, and Trump recently appointed him presidential envoy for special missions.
Trump Tower No. 5
Grenell has close - almost friendly - relations with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Foreign Minister Marko Djuric, a former Serbian ambassador to the US.
.
Investors from the Arab world, in March 2024.
The intention is to transform the former headquarters of the Armed Forces of Serbia (previously the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia) into a hotel complex featuring luxury apartments, along with a memorial to the victims of the 1999 NATO bombardment of Belgrade, in which the building suffered damage.
Following New York, Chicago, Manila, and Istanbul, this will be the fifth Trump Tower globally.
'The Ideal Candidate for Belgrade'
It's been reported that Trump was considering making Rod "Blago" Blagojevich the US ambassador to Serbia. The former governor of Illinois is a colourful political figure – even by Trump's standards.
Blagojevich, the son of Serbian immigrants, was ousted from his position in 2009 and subsequently received a 14-year prison sentence in 2011 for corruption.
When Trump commuted his sentence during his first term in office, Blagojevich was released from prison in 2020.
," Serwer told .
Donald Trump remains a popular figure among Serbs, both domestically and internationally.
Following his departure from office, Blagojevich appeared on Donald Trump's television program "The Celebrity Apprentice" in 2010.
When Trump was nominated as the Republican presidential candidate at the Republican National Convention in July 2008, Blagojevich and Grenell made several joint electoral appearances, particularly in areas of the US with significant Serbian communities, where Trump enjoyed high popularity ratings - as he did among nationalist Serbian politicians in Serbia as well as in neighboring Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo, which also have substantial Serbian populations.
In early 2024, five American businessmen with Serbian heritage attended a reception at Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. One of them was Ranko Ristic, founder of Zastava Arms USA, which holds the exclusive right to import to the United States firearms produced by the Serbian company Zastava Oruzje.
Bosnian Serbs had had to defend themselves against 3,000 mujahideen fighters.
There have been criticisms of Kosovo's Prime Minister Hashim Thaçi's leadership and policies. Critics have accused him of authoritarianism and of suppressing media freedom. Some have also questioned his commitment to democratic values.
stating that Serbs in Kosovo were the target of "ethnic cleansing" that was taking place there.
In 1999, the United States and other NATO countries launched a bombing campaign against Serbia in an effort to compel the country to withdraw its forces from Kosovo, a province within Serbia, to prevent the expulsion of the predominantly ethnic Albanian population from the region.
."
Trump's close associate Grenell has also publicly criticized Kosovo's Prime Minister Kurti on several occasions. Moreover, he met with a political opponent of Kurti, former Kosovo Prime Minister Ramush Haradinaj, in Washington the day before Trump's inauguration.
According to a post by KosovoOnline on X, Haradinaj stated that Grenell had told him it would "not be good for Kosovo if Kurti remains in power."
on February 9.
The rhetoric on Kosovo's situation has become increasingly aggressive.
The protests have been ongoing in Serbia since early November.
In recent weeks, the Serbian president's statements about Kosovo have become increasingly extreme, likely as a way to shift focus away from the country's pressing internal issues.
Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Djuric referred to Kosovo as "our southern province," where Serbs were subject to "constant discrimination and persecution."
Serbia's armed forces were prepared to "protect Serbs and other non-Albanians on the territory of our southern province." He mentioned "indicators for potential destabilization" in Kosovo.
Vucic, who has previously referred to Kurti as "terrorist scum," described him recently on Serbia's Happy TV as a "villain" who "despises Serbs."
What implications does this have for Bosnia?
The EU could, he said, respond to Belgrade's aggression towards its neighbors by "significantly boosting" the EUFOR Althea mission, which safeguards peace in Bosnia, with combat troops.
If this were to happen, a team consisting of Grenell, Kushner, and Blagojevich from the US and the Balkans would be a significant advantage for Belgrade. It would also mean that any improvement in relations between Serbia and Kosovo, which is already unlikely, would be even less likely.
and a Serbian military buildup on the Serbia-Kosovo border, with sanctions imposed against Kosovo.
.
Today, Western Balkans experts Serwer and Bassuener believe the US would not intervene to stop Vucic's army in the event of the worst-case scenario. Serwer also warns that even discussing the possibility of Kosovo or Ukraine's breakup would embolden Serbian secessionists in Bosnia to take similar action.
The delivery of the highly effective US Javelin anti-tank weapon system was indispensable for Ukraine's successful resistance against Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022.
Considering the current security policy developments, it's becoming increasingly probable that tensions in the Western Balkans could escalate into full-blown conflicts.
.
Author: Alexander Rhotert