An asteroid spotted at the end of December 2024 has more than a 1% chance of impacting Earth in 2032. This, however, is not related to the SpaceX mission led by Elon Musk. Space agencies remain on alert and will have to wait until 2028 for more information.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has been closely monitored by astronomers and space agencies since it was discovered on December 27 by the Rio Hurtado observatory in Chile. The celestial body, measuring 40 to 100 meters in diameter, follows an orbit that could intersect with that of the Earth. Although the risk of an encounter is above 1%, it is not high enough to warrant a red alert. The last time an object reached this threshold was Apophis, which was discovered in 2004 and measured 320 meters in diameter. However, after evaluating its trajectory, a collision with the Earth is unlikely for at least another century.
We'll know in 2028
Let's not sound the alarm just yet, not even if asteroid 2024 YR4 threatens to get uncomfortably close to our planet in 2032. NASA, the European Space Agency, and the global astronomy and space research community are staying calm. As it happens, when it makes its close approach to our world in 2028, we'll be able to determine whether the asteroid's orbit will narrowly skirt our planet, bounce off it, or slam into us four years later. In many instances, the danger can be significantly reduced to zero once the asteroid's trajectory is precisely pinpointed. For now, however, the asteroid retains a risk assessment of 3 on the 1999 Turin scale of potential impact, which ranges from 0 to 10.
Marine Hériot with Olivier Duquesne - Source : La Dernière Heure - Picture : Mopic
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