Christina Welch still vividly recalls the appearance of the sky the day a wildfire came within a distance of 2 miles from her Santa Rosa, California, house.
It was the Tubbs fire in 2017, then the most devastating wildfire in California's history. Ms Welch's neighbor roused her in the morning, instructing her to quickly gather her belongings and evacuate. When Ms Welch opened her door, she found herself in a thick haze of smoke with ash falling from the sky.
In 2019, the Kincade wildfire prompted her parents to evacuate for five consecutive days.
After that, Ms Welch made a decisive move. With guidance from a friend, she gathered her belongings and embarked on a cross-country journey to her new home, Duluth, Minnesota.
For the culmination of everything," the 42-year-old said. "There's only so many times you can go through the fear of losing everything, falling into flames.
Ms Welch is one of several individuals who have moved away from California within recent years, motivated by climate disasters, prior to the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles that resulted in 25 fatalities last month.
Recently, a swiftly spreading wildfire erupted in the north-west portion of Los Angeles County, ultimately prompting tens of thousands of people to leave the area, which was already severely impacted by the devastation. This past week, President Trump mentioned that he will soon travel to Southern California to observe the devastating effects of the fires.
Environmental specialists state that up until now, they have not observed significant population migration from the state due to climate change - and it's challenging to estimate the number of individuals who have relocated for this reason. The state's population growth rate, however, has continued to decrease since 2000, as per the US census data.
Scientists and demographic experts warn that as climate change-fueled disasters become more severe and unpredictable, more people may end up leaving the state, forcing cities with inadequate plans to adjust to an influx of new residents.
"I could be anticipating a surge of people stating, 'You know what? California is no longer a viable option for me as I've experienced business closures three times within a five-year span due to severe ash and smoke conditions,'" said University of Michigan professor Derek Van Berkel in the data science field.
We need to begin making preparations for these potential scenarios, as they will likely occur with greater frequency and severity.
Migrating to 'climate refuges' from California
Over the next decade, a variety of climate-related factors may prompt Californians to relocate from their homes. Between 2020 and 2023, a considerable number of wildfires in California resulted in over 15,000 structures being destroyed, according to CalFire statistics. Moreover, a staggering 12,000 structures were lost in the wildfires that erupted in Los Angeles at the start of the year.
The state is facing climate change impacts other than heat waves, such as rising sea levels. By 2100, it is estimated that half a million California residents living in flood-prone areas will be threatened by this change.
The state is affected by approximately two earthquakes per year, with a magnitude of at least 5.5, as per the California Department of Conservation.
As severe climate-related events have become more recurrent and severe, property insurance costs in the state have consistently increased. Approximately 100,000 Californians have had to abandon their home insurance since 2019, as reported by a San Francisco Chronicle examination.
Data indicates that climate migration is primarily a localized issue, with some people relocating inland within their home state or to higher ground within their own city to avoid flooding, according to Jeremy Porter, who leads climate implications at First Street, a company that conducts climate risk modeling.
He stated, however, that in recent years, a smaller number of individuals have started to move to cities beyond California that promote themselves as potential "climate havens".
The term originates from climate adaptation researcher Jesse Keenan, who compiled a list in 2019 of areas anticipated to be less susceptible to the impacts of climate change.
Near the top of the list is Duluth, Minnesota, a former industrial hub, home to approximately 90,000 residents, a population that has experienced slowly increasing numbers since 2020 following years of relative stagnation.
One of the attractions of the town is its proximity to the Great Lakes, the series of lakes considered to be the world's largest freshwater body. Approximately 10% of the United States and 30% of Canada rely on the lakes for their drinking water supply.
"This is a tremendous asset in a situation where resources are severely limited," Mr Van Berkel said.
The water supply of the Great Lakes drew Jamie Beck Alexander and her family to Duluth. Concerned by three consecutive, destructive wildfire seasons in California, Ms. Alexander, her husband, and their two young children traveled in a camper van across the country to Minnesota in 2020.
Ms. Alexander has found parallels between the small, progressive city and her old city of San Francisco.
"There's a profound sense of connection between people, and strong emotional ties, things that I believe are essential for building resilience in the face of environmental challenges," she said.
She disregarded the opinions of her friends, who thought she was being unreasonable for moving to a city famous for its record-breaking snowfall and freezing temperatures, which typically persist for an average of 106 days a year. The picturesque city on a hill has become her home, she explained.
"There's a large number of individuals residing in Duluth who hold strong affection for their community and wish to preserve its integrity," Ms. Welch mentioned.
Preparing for climate migration
Many cities that have labelled themselves as climate havens are still facing challenges in securing the necessary funding and resources to prepare for influx of new residents and enhance their communities' resilience to climate change, noted Mr. Van Berkel.
Mr. Van Berkel collaborates with Duluth and other cities in the Great Lakes region on climate change planning, including those who are being relocated to the area due to climate change.
For the time being, Mr. Porter stated that the Great Lakes region and other "climate haven" cities are not witnessing significant migration movements. However, if this situation were to change, many would not be well-prepared, he noted.
"It will require a massive investment in local infrastructures for these communities to be able to accommodate the kind of population expansion that is projected by climate migration studies," Mr Porter said.
In Duluth, housing availability is a problem, according to Ms Alexander. She stated that the city has the space to build new housing, but it doesn't currently have enough new developments to meet the needs of its growing population. Over the years since she moved there, she noted, housing prices have gone up as a result.
We should also consider the needs of future generations when designing and building new housing and other developments, said Mr. Van Berkel.
"We don't want to take actions that could lead to significant damage to our infrastructure at a time when climate change is still a major concern," he said.
Are Climate Refugees a Reality?
In 2024, a Category 4 hurricane devastated over 2,000 homes and businesses in Kelsey Lahr's climate-resilient community located in Asheville, North Carolina.
She relocated to her new home in 2020, attracted by the city's pleasant weather, diverse dining options, and vibrant music scene, seeking a change of pace following a succession of destructive wildfires and mudslides in her native Santa Barbara, California.
Before relocating, Ms Lahr thoroughly researched the most resilient locations to live in terms of climate, with Asheville being one of the top options due to its relatively mild temperatures and its landlocked position, which provides protection from flooding.
In 2022, a year ago, Hurricane Helene made its way through western North Carolina, causing devastating losses that claimed the lives of more than 100 individuals in the state and leaving a trail of destruction in the newly adopted hometown of Asheville for Ms. Lahr. The disaster left many residents without electricity for nearly three weeks and without access to safe drinking water for a period of over one month.
"Literally, southern Appalachia is not the 'climate haven' it has been made out to be," Ms. Lahr stated.
In Duluth, Ms. Alexander stated her family also learned rapidly that they could not escape climate change.
During their first summer, the town was plagued by the same haze and poor air quality that had initially forced them to leave California, this time coming from Canadian wildfires.
It was like the universe pulled off this incredibly profound deception on me," she said. "Unless we deal with the fundamental reason behind climate change, we'll always be thinking about having to pick up and move.
She has since moved to Wisconsin for personal reasons, but says she doesn't regret that first trip to Minnesota. Neither does Ms Lahr regret relocating to Asheville.
Although Ms. Lahr often misses the ancient forests of Yosemite National Park in California, where she spent her summers working as a park ranger, she feels that a future beset by climate-related disasters will necessitate making difficult choices, she said.
I'm slowly starting to believe that climate refuges are nothing but a myth," she said. "Each person needs to evaluate their individual risk and make a decision based on where they live.